Four Investment Ideas for January 2017 – $MDCO, $CDTX, $AQXP, $ARQL

This month's investment idea article discusses four stocks - The Medicines Company, Cidara Therapeutics, Aquinox and ArQule. Of these, $MDCO is a top idea with multiple revenue-earning products and 2 major pipeline product candidates with upcoming data. $ARQL is another important idea, also with upcoming catalysts. The other two are [...]

By |January 29th, 2017|Monthly Investment Ideas|4 Comments

My Top Picks for 2017…and beyond – $RHHBY $HALO $BLCM

I had three picks for 2016, Relypsa $RLYP, Acadia $ACAD and Progenics $PGNX. $RLYP was acquired at a 60% premium by a large Swiss company. ACAD got its drug approved, and just hit another successful trial for pimavanserin. PGNX has done very well. Oral Relistor got approved, and it has [...]

By |December 29th, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|0 Comments

Conviction Buy List November – $BLCM $HALO $AKBA

I removed Gilead $GILD from the list because I see no short term hope for this stock unless there's some acquisition. Even good trial results aren't helping. This doesn't mean the stock needs to be sold; it just means there are better buys out there. I removed Dynavax $DVAX because [...]

By |December 4th, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|0 Comments

Three Investment Ideas – November 2016

Halozyme The top three investment angles for Halozyme are that, one, it is a small company with an approved product, two, its Enhanze platform is partnered with a number of large biotech and generates royalties, and three, it has a late stage pipeline with strong potential. Halozyme (HALO) is a [...]

By |November 26th, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|0 Comments

Global Blood Therapeutics $GBT Presents Excellent Opportunity in SCD

Global Blood Therapeutics, Inc $GBT investment angle is this - GBT just received what amounts to an SPA from the FDA, and it is very lenient. In fact, the required primary endpoint for p3 has already been achieved in phase 2. “The study's primary efficacy endpoint will be the proportion [...]

By |November 1st, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|2 Comments

The three ‘Gens and Gilead $GILD $CELG $BIIB $AMGN: Which has the most promise?

There are others, but these four companies - Celgene $CELG Biogen $BIIB Amgen $AMGN and Gilead $GILD - have often been discussed in these forums. These are a special subset of biotech companies, those that are large cap, have a long-tailed product line, but are still growth stocks. I have [...]

By |October 24th, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|0 Comments

$VSAR Valuation Report

Versartis $VSAR is targeting a $3 billion market with its Somavaratan. In order to value the company, I have assumed a 2019 launch for the drug in both adult and pediatric markets. *** L3 or above subscription required to read the rest of the article ... Login or Subscribe/Upgrade [...]

By |October 19th, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|0 Comments

Versartis $VSAR Low Risk Buying Opportunity Before Catalyst

Versartis $VSAR Somavartan’s advantages over other recombinant human growth hormones, or rhGH, both long and short acting, are, Longer half life, remains active in the bloodstream longer, 131 hours compared to 2-4 hours, making it more suitable for monthly dosing Monthly dosing of somavartan is comparable to daily dosing of [...]

By |October 17th, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|0 Comments

Valuation Report: $ZGNX

An estimated 16,000 to 29,000 patients live with Dravet syndrome in the U.S. and Europe. In order to value ZX008 in Dravet syndrome, I have assumed the total number of patients living with Dravet syndrome in the U.S. and Europe at 25,000 in 2019, the year ZX008 could be potentially [...]

By |October 10th, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|0 Comments

AC Immune $ACIU: Interesting approach in neurodegenerative diseases

AC Immune is a small Swiss company that has been in existence since 2003, but just recently IPO-ed on NASDAQ. The company is developing novel therapeutic and diagnostic agents for treating, diagnosing and vaccinating various neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer’s Disease. *** L3 or above subscription required to read the [...]

By |October 10th, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|0 Comments

Zogenix $ZGNX, Are There Safety Risks With ZX008?

Zogenix $ZGNX has two products, ZX008, low-dose fenfluramine for various types of epilepsies; and Relday, a long-acting SC risperidone injection  for schizophrenia. ZX008 initiated phase 3 in January 2016 for Dravet’s syndrome, a rare type of epilepsy syndrome occurring very early in life. As people have discussed in our chatroom, [...]

By |September 28th, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|0 Comments

Valuation for MEI Pharma $MEIP

The key value driver for MEI Pharma (MEIP) is pracinostat in secondary AML space where patients are too sick for chemotherapy. The AML treatment market was estimated at around $343 million in 2014, according to GlobalData. The consulting and research firm expects the market to grow at a CAGR of [...]

By |September 1st, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|0 Comments

$PTLA Price Target Update

Portola ($PTLA) suffered a setback this week as the FDA issued a Complete Response Letter (CRL) to the company relating to the New Drug Application (NDA) for andexant alfa. As I have noted before, andexanet alfa is the key value driver for PTLA. In fact, when I first valued PTLA, [...]

By |August 19th, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|3 Comments

Valuation of $CEMP Cempra

The valuation of Cempra $CEMP is based mainly on the potential of Solithromycin. The company’s NDAs for the drug has been accepted by the FDA and the oral and IV formulations could be launched by early 2017. For the DCF valuation, I have focused on the U.S. market alone. The [...]

By |August 16th, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|0 Comments

BUY Cempra $CEMP, a Pure-Play Superbug Targeted Drug Platform

Richard Pearson’s recent article on Cempra $CEMP has most of the details necessary for investors to decide about the stock; except a couple critically medical things. One, comparative safety/efficacy profile of Solithera as seen in the two trials, IV and oral, for CABP (community-acquired bacterial pneumonia). Two, based on that [...]

By |August 15th, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|1 Comment

$RIGL Rigel Pharma: Upcoming Data Presents Trading Opportunity

Rigel Pharma’s $RIGL fostamatinib has upcoming data this month. Data is from a phase 3 trial of fostamatinib in ITP, or immune thrombocytopenic purpura, an autoimmune disease that leads to the destruction of platelets, eventually leading to internal bleeding, and death. Chronic ITP affects an estimated 60,000 to 125,000 people [...]

By |August 3rd, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|0 Comments

CytoKinetics $CYTK : A High Risk-reward Opportunity

Overview - CytoKinetics $CYTK is developing first-in-class muscle activators to treat muscle debilitation. Drug candidates currently in clinical development are skeletal muscle activators tirasemtiv and CK-2127107, and cardiac muscle activator omecamtiv mecarbil. *** L3 or above subscription required to read the rest of the article ... Login or Subscribe/Upgrade [...]

By |July 29th, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|1 Comment

Conviction Buy List July

Two of my top biotech picks for 2016 had some favorable developments this week. In fact, all three of the stocks in the list have now had positive developments this year. Earlier in the year, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) got an approval for its NUPLAZID in PDP. ACAD is still undervalued [...]

By |July 22nd, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|0 Comments

Juno Therapeutics $JUNO: Some Notes

In light of the recent FDA hold on Juno's clinical trial following the death of two patients, I thought I would publish this bit of DD that I had been working on for a few months. It is incomplete, except for a discussion of cytokine storm, which seems to be [...]

By |July 9th, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|0 Comments

Paratek Pharmaceuticals $PRTK: A Study in Antibiotic Development

Paratek $PRTK did not soar as much as we hoped after its positive p3 for ABSSSI for omadacycline. It just went up about 20% and came down again because the company took the opportunity to sell some more shares. It didn’t get anywhere near where it was last year - [...]

By |June 29th, 2016|Monthly Investment Ideas|1 Comment